Virginia Democrat Jay Jones PLUMMETS in New Poll After 2022 Messages About “Killing Republicans” Resurface — Jason Miyares Takes Commanding Lead
The Virginia Attorney General’s race has been upended in its final stretch, as a new Roanoke College poll released October 27 shows Republican incumbent Jason Miyares pulling ahead of Democrat Jay Jones by a widening margin — 46% to 38% — amid a political storm over resurfaced comments that have shaken the campaign to its core.
The controversy erupted earlier this month after 2022 text messages surfaced in which Jones, then a state delegate, appeared to joke about violent scenarios targeting Republicans and their children, allegedly saying he “wished for a mass shooting at a GOP event.” The comments, first obtained through a leaked group chat archive, drew bipartisan condemnation, with even some Democrats privately calling the remarks “disqualifying.” Jones has since apologized, describing the messages as “hyperbole in a private conversation taken out of context,” but the political damage has been swift and severe.
According to the Roanoke poll of 1,041 likely voters conducted between October 22 and 27, Miyares’ support has surged eight points since early October, cementing his status as the favorite heading into Virginia’s off-year elections on November 4. The poll carries a margin of error of ±3.1% and reflects a significant realignment among independents, who now favor Miyares by double digits.
The fallout from Jones’s remarks has dominated local headlines and campaign discourse, transforming what was once a competitive race into an uphill climb for Democrats. In televised interviews, Miyares has framed the scandal not as a partisan issue but as a matter of moral integrity, telling reporters, “Political violence of any kind is unacceptable. Words matter, and leaders must set the tone.” His campaign has leaned heavily into that message, airing ads that contrast Miyares’s law-and-order credentials with Jones’s “reckless and hateful rhetoric.”
The development has also sparked broader conversations about the tone of American politics, with many calling the episode a stark reminder of how rhetoric can inflame divisions. Republicans across the state have rallied around Miyares, describing the incident as emblematic of a Democratic Party that has lost touch with civility and respect. “When you wish harm on your political opponents — even as a joke — you don’t belong in office,” said one Virginia GOP strategist. “Voters are sending that message loud and clear.”
Jay Jones, a 35-year-old progressive from Norfolk and once considered a rising star in Virginia Democratic politics, has struggled to regain footing. His campaign released a statement reiterating his apology and urging voters to “focus on real issues, not old text messages.” However, attempts to pivot toward policy have largely failed to shift the narrative. Many voters remain deeply unsettled by the incident, especially in suburban counties where Miyares’s base has strengthened.
Meanwhile, the broader political landscape in Virginia tells a more complex story. The same Roanoke survey shows Democratic Governor Abigail Spanberger holding a solid 10-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, suggesting that voters are distinguishing between statewide races rather than engaging in blanket party-line voting. Yet for Jones, the poll underscores an acute vulnerability that could cost Democrats the state’s top law enforcement seat.
Political analysts say the controversy may have long-term implications beyond this election. “This isn’t just about one comment,” said Dr. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “It’s about public trust. Once you’re seen as crossing that line — joking about violence — it becomes almost impossible to rebuild your credibility.”
For Jason Miyares, who made history in 2021 as Virginia’s first Hispanic attorney general, the latest numbers reinforce his image as a steady and disciplined public servant. His campaign has maintained a consistent focus on crime reduction, border enforcement, and defending parental rights — themes that continue to resonate with Virginia’s suburban and rural voters alike.
As Election Day nears, Jones’s campaign faces a daunting challenge: convincing voters that his words do not define his character, even as Miyares’s momentum grows stronger by the day. For many Virginians, the race has become about more than politics — it’s about the kind of leadership they want representing them at a time when tempers and tensions are already running high.
With less than a week to go, Miyares’s lead appears solid, while Jones’s hopes for a comeback are slipping away. The Virginia Attorney General race — once viewed as a routine rematch between partisan ideologies — has instead turned into a referendum on accountability, civility, and the enduring power of words.
