New Jersey Governor Race Tightens — Mikie Sherrill Holds Narrow 5-Point Lead Over Jack Ciattarelli as GOP Sees Major Upset Potential
With just weeks to go before New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election, a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll has thrown the race into unexpected territory — showing Democrat Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by only five points, 50% to 45%, among likely voters. The poll, conducted from October 3 to 17 among 795 respondents, suggests what many political insiders have suspected: the race could be far closer than Democrats anticipated, especially given New Jersey’s history of tightening polls in the final stretch.
For Ciattarelli, the poll represents a glimmer of opportunity. The same Rutgers-Eagleton pollster overestimated Democratic strength in the last cycle, projecting an eight-point win for Phil Murphy in 2021 when the actual margin was under three points — a 5.2-point polling miss that nearly delivered the state’s first Republican governor in over a decade. With that precedent, the GOP base has reason to believe the 2025 race might once again defy expectations.
Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and current congresswoman, has centered her campaign on economic stability, reproductive rights, and education funding, leaning into her image as a moderate Democrat capable of winning suburban swing voters. Her campaign emphasizes unity and steady leadership — but in a state fatigued by rising costs, property taxes, and frustration with Washington politics, her advantage may not be as secure as it seems.
Jack Ciattarelli, meanwhile, is running a populist, business-minded campaign focused on affordability, crime, and education reform. His message of “restoring balance to Trenton” echoes his near-upset of Governor Murphy four years ago, when he came within striking distance despite running in a deep-blue state. This time, Ciattarelli has leaned harder into grassroots organizing, local events, and mobilizing Republican and independent voters frustrated with one-party control.
While the Rutgers poll gives Sherrill a five-point lead, the margin of error and historical trends suggest the race could be a statistical toss-up. Political analysts note that New Jersey’s late-deciding independents — a critical voting bloc — often break toward Republicans in close elections, particularly when turnout among Democrats dips. GOP supporters have seized on that fact, calling for a major ground game push heading into the final days.
Online reaction to the poll has been swift and divided. Republican activists flooded social media, highlighting the pollster’s past inaccuracy and predicting a red surge. “They missed Ciattarelli by five points last time,” one user wrote. “This race is tied.” Others pointed to recent controversies in the state’s Democratic establishment and voter dissatisfaction over taxes and school policy as potential tailwinds for Ciattarelli.
Democrats, for their part, are sounding alarms about complacency. Party organizers have urged early voting and ramped up outreach in urban and suburban counties to counter the expected Republican turnout wave. “The last thing we can do is underestimate Jack Ciattarelli again,” one Democratic strategist warned, referencing the shock of 2021’s near-loss.
Nationally, the New Jersey governor’s race has gained attention as a potential bellwether for voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms. A Ciattarelli victory in one of the country’s bluest states would be a major symbolic win for Republicans and a warning shot for Democrats heading into a difficult national landscape.
For now, Sherrill maintains a slim advantage — but history, momentum, and voter frustration suggest this race is anything but over. In New Jersey politics, where polls have a habit of tightening and surprises come late, the GOP smells opportunity. As one Republican strategist put it this week: “If every conservative voter shows up, New Jersey’s about to shock the country.”
