Rasmussen Poll Finds Mikie Sherrill Leading Jack Ciattarelli 46%-40% in New Jersey Governor Race — But Republican Momentum Is Surging as Early Voting Nears
The race for New Jersey’s governorship is tightening once again, with new data suggesting that Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli could be closing in on Democrat Mikie Sherrill as the November 4 election approaches. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted between October 8 and 9, Sherrill leads 46% to 40%, with 9% of likely voters still undecided. The poll, which surveyed 955 likely voters, has injected fresh energy into Republican circles, especially with early in-person voting set to begin on October 28.
Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman and businessman, is no stranger to tough political battles. In 2021, he stunned the nation by coming within just 3 points of unseating incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, despite polling that had predicted a double-digit loss. That near-upset remains one of the most significant signs of Republican resurgence in a deep-blue state that hasn’t elected a GOP governor since Chris Christie’s reelection in 2013. Now, Ciattarelli is back, seeking redemption and harnessing growing voter frustration with Democratic leadership at both the state and national levels.
His opponent, Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and current congresswoman representing New Jersey’s 11th District, is running as a moderate Democrat. While she maintains strong support among suburban women and centrist voters, her association with the Biden-Harris administration’s broader policies may prove a vulnerability in a state where economic pressures, rising taxes, and public safety concerns are dominating voter conversations.
The Rasmussen poll reflects a narrower margin than many analysts expected. It also mirrors broader national trends suggesting that Republican enthusiasm, particularly among Trump-aligned voters, remains exceptionally high heading into the 2025 elections. Compared to other recent surveys — such as Emerson College’s September poll showing a statistical tie between the two candidates and a Democratic Governors Association poll giving Sherrill only a slim single-digit advantage — Rasmussen’s results paint a picture of a race that is far from settled.
Republican strategists believe Ciattarelli’s experience and moderate messaging are key strengths that could appeal to independents and working-class voters across North and Central Jersey. His campaign has leaned into economic recovery, small business relief, and education reforms — issues that continue to resonate with families feeling squeezed by inflation and state taxes. In contrast, Sherrill’s campaign has focused on stability, health care expansion, and protecting reproductive rights, themes that energize her progressive base but may not connect as deeply with the state’s increasingly cost-conscious electorate.
The GOP base, meanwhile, is more motivated than ever. Conservative groups are urging voters to “storm the polls” and turn out in force when early voting begins later this month. Ciattarelli himself has framed this election as a chance to “prove the polls wrong again,” drawing parallels to his surprising 2021 performance. His rallies have drawn strong crowds in Republican-leaning areas like Monmouth, Ocean, and Sussex counties, where voter enthusiasm appears to be outpacing Democratic turnout expectations.
Trump supporters see this race as more than just a local contest. Many believe a Ciattarelli win in New Jersey — a state that Biden carried by more than 15 points in 2020 — would send a national message about Republican strength ahead of 2026. “If we can flip New Jersey, we can flip the country,” one local GOP volunteer told Fox Digital, echoing the broader party optimism spreading through traditionally blue suburbs.
Still, Democrats remain confident that Sherrill’s appeal and her record of service will carry her to victory. Her campaign has poured resources into digital outreach, early mail-in voting drives, and community town halls across Essex and Bergen counties — regions that have historically turned out large Democratic margins.
Both candidates are preparing for what could be one of the closest statewide races in New Jersey in over a decade. With nearly one in ten voters still undecided, the next few weeks could determine whether the state continues its Democratic streak or marks a stunning Republican comeback.
For Ciattarelli and the GOP, the path forward is clear: turn enthusiasm into action. As early voting opens on October 28, the challenge will be ensuring that the same red wave energy seen in 2021 carries through to Election Day. And if history is any guide, Jack Ciattarelli knows better than anyone — polls don’t always tell the full story.
