Red Wave Rising: New Jersey Republicans Overtake Democrats in Mail-In Ballot Returns Ahead of the 2025 Governor’s Race as Jack Ciattarelli Rallies Supporters for a Historic Election Push
With just days to go before the 2025 New Jersey governor’s race enters its final stretch, Republicans have pulled ahead of Democrats in mail-in ballot returns — a development many political observers say could signal a major shift in one of America’s bluest states. The latest data shows Republicans leading with 43.8% of returned ballots compared to Democrats at 42.7%, with other parties accounting for 25.2%. Though the raw Democratic vote total remains slightly higher by approximately 146,000 votes, the rate of GOP returns has remained consistently stronger throughout the election season, marking a momentum shift that’s energizing conservatives across the Garden State.
This surge comes as in-person voting is set to begin Saturday, and Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli is mobilizing supporters for what his campaign calls a “final weekend push.” The former state assemblyman, who narrowly lost to Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy in 2021, has emerged once again as the GOP’s leading figure, rallying voters with a message centered on economic reform, parental rights, and public safety. His team says the current mail-in advantage shows Republican voters are no longer sitting back — they’re participating early, and they’re ready to deliver a statement.
For many conservatives, the numbers are more than just statistics; they represent a psychological turning point in a state long written off as safely Democratic. Every day of this election cycle has shown Republicans maintaining a consistent edge in mail-in returns, a metric traditionally dominated by Democrats. It’s a trend that analysts say could indicate higher GOP enthusiasm, particularly among working-class voters and suburban families who have felt disillusioned by years of progressive leadership.
Behind the campaign scenes, Jack Ciattarelli’s team is laser-focused on converting that enthusiasm into turnout. Volunteers have been flooding neighborhoods across New Jersey, distributing literature, knocking on doors, and emphasizing the importance of showing up at the polls this weekend. “HOLD STRONG and then surge to the polls — THAT IS THE PLAY,” one campaign message read, encapsulating the determination driving the GOP effort.
The Ciattarelli campaign is also highlighting what they describe as growing voter fatigue under Democratic control, pointing to high taxes, education controversies, and a perception that New Jersey’s leadership has become increasingly disconnected from everyday residents. “We’re seeing lifelong Democrats and independents telling us they’re ready for a change,” one campaign staffer said. “This isn’t just about party — it’s about restoring common sense.”
Republican strategists nationwide are watching New Jersey closely, viewing it as a bellwether for how suburban and swing-state voters may respond in 2026 and beyond. If the GOP can continue its mail-in momentum and turn that energy into Election Day turnout, it would represent not only a political win but a symbolic one — proof that conservative organizing and voter engagement strategies have evolved since the pandemic era.
As Ciattarelli’s team prepares for the weekend push, the message is clear: momentum is on their side, but complacency is not an option. With the margin still narrow and Democrats holding a numerical edge in total votes, Republicans are emphasizing discipline and turnout as the deciding factors. “We have a limited window, and we must perform,” Ciattarelli said to supporters, urging them to stay engaged through the finish line.
In a state where red victories are rare, the growing strength of Republican voters in the mail-in ballot count has electrified the conservative base. Whether this early surge will translate into a historic GOP win remains to be seen — but one thing is certain: New Jersey’s political landscape is shifting, and the fight for the governor’s seat has just become one of the most closely watched races in America.
