Early Voting Data Reveals Trump Counties Outpacing Democrats in Virginia Governor’s Race, Boosting Winsome Earle-Sears Against Abigail Spanberger
Early voting in Virginia’s 2025 governor’s race is already shaping the conversation, and the numbers are telling a story that has Republicans excited and Democrats on edge. Fresh analysis shows Trump-won counties are outpacing Democrat-leaning areas in turnout, suggesting that GOP enthusiasm for Winsome Earle-Sears could play a decisive role in her showdown against Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
According to the data, Trump counties are currently voting at 72.8 percent of their 2024 levels, while Harris counties sit at 68.9 percent. The gap grows even sharper when looking at the most partisan areas, with deep-red counties hitting 73.2 percent compared to just 66.6 percent in deep-blue ones. Those numbers may seem small at first glance, but in a close race, the difference could be enough to shift the outcome. For Republicans, it is a promising sign that their voters are energized and turning out early, a critical factor in off-year elections like this one.
The context is just as important as the raw figures. Virginia’s gubernatorial elections are held in odd-numbered years, a tradition that often results in lower turnout overall. Because of that, whichever side manages to mobilize its base most effectively usually wins. Right now, the advantage seems to be leaning toward Republicans. This development aligns with a recent A2 Insights poll showing Spanberger’s lead narrowing to just three points, 48 percent to 45 percent. What had once looked like a comfortable Democratic advantage is now shaping into a nail-biter.
Winsome Earle-Sears, currently the state’s lieutenant governor and a Marine veteran, has been running on issues like parental rights, education reform, and border security. Her candidacy has energized many conservatives who see her as both a strong Trump ally and a historic figure in Virginia politics. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and current congresswoman, has built her campaign around economic growth, healthcare, and protecting abortion rights, betting that her pragmatic record will keep Democrats unified and appeal to moderates.
The turnout numbers, however, hint at a structural challenge for Democrats. Deep-blue counties are underperforming compared to their red counterparts, reflecting what some analysts believe is a growing enthusiasm gap. That does not mean Democrats cannot recover, but it does underscore the urgency for their campaign to mobilize voters quickly. Off-year elections rarely capture national headlines, but they often depend on the enthusiasm of local bases. If the early patterns hold, Republicans may have the edge in creating momentum.
Observers note that this shift contrasts with early September trends, when Democratic areas were briefly ahead in turnout. The change suggests that Republican voters may be more motivated heading into the heart of the campaign season. With just over a month to go before the November 4 election, both sides will now double down on get-out-the-vote efforts, knowing the race could come down to a margin of only a few thousand ballots.
For voters in Virginia, these numbers are more than statistics. They represent the pulse of a state that has flipped back and forth between red and blue over the past two decades. Winsome Earle-Sears sees them as proof that her message is resonating, while Abigail Spanberger’s team views them as a warning that their supporters cannot afford to sit this one out. In the end, Virginia’s 2025 governor’s race is not only about two candidates, but about which side can sustain enthusiasm from now until Election Day.
The story of this election is still being written, but the latest early voting data makes one thing clear: Republicans are showing up in force. If Democrats cannot match that intensity, Virginia could once again surprise the nation with a result that reflects turnout more than polling. With every vote counting, the final weeks of this campaign are set to be some of the most intense the state has seen in years.
