Shocking New Poll Shows Abigail Spanberger’s Lead Collapsing as Winsome Earle-Sears Narrows the Virginia Governor’s Race to Just Three Points
The Virginia governor’s race, once thought to be safely in the hands of Democrat Abigail Spanberger, has suddenly become one of the most unpredictable and closely watched contests in the country. A brand-new poll conducted by A2 Insights between September 26 and 28 shows Spanberger at 48% and Republican challenger Winsome Earle-Sears at 45%, with 6% of voters still unsure. What makes this shift remarkable is that earlier surveys had Spanberger leading by double digits, and now the race is separated by just three points, well within the margin where anything can happen.
For Republicans, this poll is electrifying. Winsome Earle-Sears is no ordinary candidate. She is Virginia’s current lieutenant governor, a Jamaican-born Marine veteran, and a woman who has built her campaign around conservative priorities such as parental rights, border security, and economic responsibility. Her ability to energize the GOP base while also reaching moderates has been underestimated until now, but the numbers prove that her message is resonating with Virginians in ways many political analysts did not predict months ago.
Spanberger, on the other hand, is a seasoned competitor with her own powerful résumé. A former CIA officer turned congresswoman, she has leaned into her record on bipartisan problem-solving, focusing her campaign on issues such as economic growth, healthcare access, and protecting abortion rights. She has cultivated an image of pragmatism, appealing to voters who value stability and moderation, but the new poll makes clear that this strategy is facing a serious test as the Republican momentum grows.
What makes this poll even more important is the timing. The election is just weeks away, scheduled for November 4, 2025, and the final stretch of campaigning is when momentum often decides outcomes. For Democrats, the shrinking lead raises alarms, especially given Virginia’s recent political history. In 2021, Republicans shocked the nation by flipping the governor’s mansion with Glenn Youngkin’s win, proving that Virginia can swing dramatically when voter enthusiasm tilts one way. The fact that Earle-Sears is now within striking distance shows that the Republican base is not only engaged but hungry for another upset.
The social media reaction to the poll has been overwhelming. Posts about the numbers have drawn tens of thousands of likes and shares, with GOP voters rallying behind the idea that victory is possible if turnout is strong. Supporters are urging each other to vote early and not take anything for granted, while Democrats are emphasizing the urgency of holding the line to prevent another Republican wave. Both sides understand that the undecided 6% of voters could tip the entire election, making every speech, debate, and advertisement between now and November potentially decisive.
Earle-Sears’s rise also reflects the broader national environment, where issues like inflation, border policy, and cultural debates over education have created an opening for Republicans in swing states. Spanberger’s campaign has countered by reminding voters of her commitment to protecting reproductive rights and preserving healthcare coverage, knowing these are issues that have historically mobilized Democratic voters in Virginia.
No matter which way the race ultimately goes, this poll confirms that Virginia is no longer a safe bet for either party. The narrowing gap shows a state deeply divided and intensely motivated, where every single vote will matter. For political watchers, it is becoming one of the most important battlegrounds of 2025, and for Virginians, it is a moment to decide the future direction of their state in a race that has suddenly become impossible to call.
