Virginia Erupts as Poll Shows Jason Miyares Barely Leading Jay Jones — After Leaked Texts Show Jones Saying GOP Leader “Deserved Two Bullets”
A new Kaplan Strategies poll has sent shockwaves through Virginia’s political landscape, showing just how tight the 2025 races have become — and how a scandal that once seemed career-ending may still be haunting Democrat Jay Jones. According to the October 16–18 survey of 556 likely voters, Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Sears 51% to 41% in the governor’s race. But the bigger story comes in the attorney general race, where Republican incumbent Jason Miyares holds a razor-thin 45% to 44% edge over Jones — a contest far closer than many expected, given the Democrat’s history of inflammatory remarks.
The poll comes amid renewed outrage over resurfaced text messages from 2022, when Jay Jones — then a prominent Democratic state delegate — vented his frustration after gun legislation failed to advance. In those messages, Jones allegedly wrote that Republican Speaker Todd Gilbert “deserved two bullets more than Hitler or Pol Pot,” followed by a shocking reference to Gilbert’s wife “cradling their dying children.” The messages, leaked from a private group chat, caused bipartisan condemnation at the time and forced Jones to issue a public apology. Yet despite the controversy, he has remained a rising figure in Virginia’s Democratic Party and now stands just one point behind Miyares heading into the final stretch before Election Day.
For Republicans, the poll is both a warning and a rallying cry. Many expected the scandal to sink Jones’s chances outright, particularly after Governor Glenn Youngkin’s administration pushed for accountability and GOP leaders condemned what they described as “pure political hatred.” Instead, Jones’s resilience in the polls highlights the deep partisan polarization defining this election. Democratic voters, while acknowledging the offensive comments, appear unwilling to break ranks in a high-stakes cycle that could decide control of statewide offices for years to come.
Spanberger, the Democratic frontrunner for governor, has called Jones’s comments “abhorrent” but stopped short of distancing herself from his campaign. Her decision underscores a broader strategy within the Virginia Democratic ticket — maintaining unity amid controversy while painting Republicans as extremist on abortion and education. The dynamic has created one of the most volatile political climates in the country, with both sides trading accusations of moral hypocrisy.
Jason Miyares, the Republican attorney general seeking re-election, has largely avoided personal attacks but used the scandal as a case study for what he calls “Democratic double standards.” His campaign has focused on law and order, education freedom, and restoring civility in government. Still, the close poll numbers have frustrated GOP voters who feel the outrage over Jones’s remarks should have translated into a stronger lead.
The Kaplan poll reflects the reality of modern Virginia politics — a deeply divided state that swings fiercely between parties. The results show not only how potent scandal fatigue has become among voters, but also how much name recognition and national support can blunt the effects of controversy. Early voting began earlier this month, and both parties are urging their bases to turn out in what is shaping up to be a defining election for Virginia’s political future.
For Republicans, the message is clear: outrage isn’t enough — turnout will decide everything. The Miyares campaign hopes that renewed focus on the leaked texts will remind voters what’s at stake, portraying the Democratic challenger as unfit for office. Meanwhile, Jones is leaning on forgiveness and forward-looking rhetoric, claiming the controversy belongs to the past and insisting his focus is on “real issues that matter to Virginians.”
As November 4 approaches, one thing is certain — Virginia’s voters are watching closely. And in a state where just one percentage point can decide the outcome, this race may prove that no scandal, no matter how shocking, is ever truly disqualifying in today’s politics.
