Republican Jason Miyares Leads by 5 Points in New Virginia Poll as Democrat Jay Jones Faces Backlash Over Leaked Anti-Republican Messages
A new Trafalgar Group poll released this week shows Republicans gaining momentum in Virginia as Attorney General Jason Miyares pulls ahead of Democrat Jay Jones by five points in a race now overshadowed by Jones’ resurfaced text message scandal. Conducted from October 13 to 15, 2025, the survey of 1,039 likely voters puts Miyares at 50% to Jones’ 45%, with the remaining voters undecided — a notable swing in a state Democrats once considered safely blue.
The controversy erupted after the publication of 2022 private text messages allegedly sent by Jones, in which he wrote that he “hoped Republicans and their children would die,” including a disturbing comment about “Republican kids dying in their mothers’ arms.” The messages, verified through multiple sources last week, have sparked outrage among Republican leaders and prompted calls for Jones to withdraw from the race. Jones has not denied sending the messages but described them as “deeply regrettable comments made in anger.”
The fallout appears to have shaken confidence in Jones’ campaign at a critical moment. Pollsters say the remarks, widely condemned even by moderates, may have alienated swing voters in the Richmond suburbs and Hampton Roads — two areas key to statewide victories. “This wasn’t political banter,” one Virginia voter told local reporters. “It was cruel. It crossed every line of decency.”
Meanwhile, Miyares, the incumbent attorney general, has positioned himself as a steady, principled alternative. Known for his focus on crime reduction, parental rights, and election integrity, Miyares has maintained strong approval ratings even in traditionally Democratic parts of northern Virginia. Campaign insiders credit his disciplined messaging and reputation for fairness as reasons for his sustained advantage.
The same Trafalgar poll also found that Republican Winsome Sears, the former lieutenant governor and Marine veteran, has narrowed the gap against Democratic Governor Abigail Spanberger in the 2025 gubernatorial race. Spanberger leads 47.5% to 45.3%, but the margin has tightened by nearly four points since August. Analysts say that if Miyares’ lead holds and Sears continues closing in, Virginia could again shift red in next year’s midterm elections — a scenario few predicted after 2022.
For Republicans, the numbers reinforce optimism that the political tide is turning back in their favor. The state’s recent economic struggles, coupled with high taxes and ongoing cultural battles over education and policing, have reignited conservative enthusiasm. “Virginia voters are seeing who actually delivers results,” Miyares said during a rally in Virginia Beach. “We believe in justice, opportunity, and family values — not hate or division.”
The text scandal has also become a rallying point for GOP campaigns across the state. Prominent conservatives have condemned Jones’ comments as emblematic of what they describe as growing intolerance among Democratic leaders. “This is what the far-left has become,” one Republican strategist told Fox Digital. “When you wish harm on your opponents’ children, you’ve lost any claim to moral leadership.”
Democrats, meanwhile, are scrambling to contain the damage. Jones’ campaign has reportedly halted major advertising buys and scaled back appearances as national donors reconsider support. Governor Spanberger’s team has also faced tough questions about whether the controversy could weigh down Democratic turnout across Virginia.
While Trafalgar’s polls have historically leaned slightly Republican, even neutral analysts acknowledge that the race’s trajectory is shifting. “The Jones scandal changes everything,” said one political science professor at George Mason University. “Even if Trafalgar’s margin is a bit generous to Republicans, this still signals a real vulnerability for Democrats heading into 2026.”
The numbers also highlight the enduring influence of Donald Trump’s endorsement network, with both Miyares and Sears long associated with the former president’s policy priorities. Republican officials are hopeful the combination of strong candidates, rising voter frustration, and energized grassroots support could flip key statewide offices — again.
As the campaigns move into their final stretch, one thing is certain: Virginia, long seen as a Democratic firewall, has become a battleground once more. And this time, Republicans are smelling opportunity.
